Wisconsin Recall Petition Period Ends

And the final score is … GOP: 3, Dems: 6.

Actually, the final score really should be GOP: 1, Dems: 5, and even that 1 point for the GOP might be a little generous.

Of the three senators the GOP managed to file papers against, only one — Jim Holperin — has a shot at being defeated. Fortunately for Holperin, he’s drawn a local tea party fanatic with no experience running for office. Dave Hansen and Bob Wirch are fine. There aren’t even candidates running against them yet and the group that filed Hansen’s recall papers doesn’t exactly have the best track records thus far.

But the Dems have assembled a credible crew of challengers to take on the GOP incumbents. Only one Republican senator — Robert Cowles — doesn’t have a challenger yet, while Sen. Sheila Harsdorf is the only one of the remaining five facing a candidate who has never run for office before. So here’s a breakdown of the likely outcomes of the upcoming recall elections:

LIKELY DEM FLIP

Dan Kapanke 

LEAN DEM FLIP

Randy Hopper

LEAN GOP HOLD

Alberta Darling

Luther Olsen

LIKELY GOP HOLD

Sheila Harsdorf

SAFE GOP HOLD

Robert Cowles

********

SAFE DEM HOLD

Dave Hansen

Robert Wirch

LIKELY DEM HOLD

Jim Holperin

A couple of quick notes: I don’t think the petition period for Sen. Julie Lassa ends until the middle of May. Regardless, it’s probably not worth the GOP’s time and energy since her seat would be a LIKELY DEM HOLD even if they do manage to find the signatures.

There are also strong arguments for placing either Luther Olsen or Alberta Darling into a TOSS UP category for a variety of reasons, but for the sake of caution I’m going to assume their incumbency will actually help them the further we get away from the craziness of March.